SPECIAL MARKET DISPATCH, Monday, MARCH 9, 2026
It is 3:00 AM Monday morning here in Mallorca as I write (Sunday evening in North America), having just arrived with my Old Guys Ride Every Saturday cycling group for a week of riding. Given current events, the pedal power may be a blessing - fuel prices across Europe are set to surge meaningfully this week as geopolitical tensions escalate.
Over the weekend, the conflict in Iran intensified materially. Coordinated U.S. - Israel strikes triggered widespread retaliation across the Gulf region, including attacks on vessels and energy infrastructure in Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The Strait of Hormuz - through which roughly 21% of the world’s oil supply normally flows - has been effectively brought to a standstill as insurers withdraw coverage and shipping giants reroute traffic around Africa. Brent crude and European natural gas prices immediately spiked on fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
Against that backdrop, I’ve been reflecting on where markets stood at Friday’s close: the S&P 500 was less than 4% off all‑time highs. Over the past decade, the index has delivered annualized returns of about 15% - levels that are exceptional by any historical standard. History would suggest that after such extraordinary gains, forward returns typically normalize, often falling in the –2% to +2% range over the subsequent decade.
A great deal of the current optimism is concentrated in the AI‑related sectors. And while transformative technologies undoubtedly change societies for the better, investor outcomes in the builders of prior innovations - from railways to dot‑com infrastructure - were far less consistent. AI will create winners, but history reminds us it rarely rewards everyone equally.
As many of you know, I often remind investors that behaviour, not forecasting, drives long‑term outcomes. Recently I’ve had more client enthusiasm than at any other point in my 30+ year career: emails praising performance, upbeat conversations in meetings, even my barber stopping me on the street to announce she’s buying silver bars. That enthusiasm can be flattering… but it can also be a sign that markets are transitioning from optimism to exuberance. As the saying goes, “When clients want to throw a party in your honour, it is time to sell.” Markets have a way of humbling even the most seasoned professionals.
Now we face a new variable: a geopolitical shock that has pushed oil above $100 and disrupted a maritime corridor responsible for one‑fifth of global crude and LNG flows. With several tankers attacked and shipping risk elevated, major carriers have halted transits entirely, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and adding time and cost to global supply chains. While today’s economy is less manufacturing‑heavy than in the 1970s, energy remains the lifeblood of both goods and services. A prolonged disruption would have broad inflationary and economic implications.
So, What Do We Do?
Raising cash to 10-20% level may sound bold, but bold is not the same as extreme - it is simply prudent risk management. If the conflict resolves quickly and markets rally, we fully expect you will forgive us. For us, the far greater risk is assuming that a complex geopolitical and supply‑chain shock of this magnitude, resolves itself quickly.
Our responsibility is not to predict the outcome, but to prepare for a range of outcomes. Every crisis also creates opportunities, and historically the most compelling ones emerge when fear overwhelms discipline. Selling everything is not a strategy; positioning portfolios thoughtfully so that we can buy when others are forced to sell is.
Alex, Eileen and I will continue to assess developments in real time and make decisions grounded in evidence, discipline, and long‑term stewardship.
We appreciate the trust you have blessed us with and will always do our best to see that your confidence increases over time.
Chris, on behalf of the entire Aspira team.
Written by: Chris Raper, CIM, CFP®
Co-Founder | Wealth Advisor | Cross Border Specialist
Aspira Wealth of Raymond James Ltd.
