THE QUARTERLY COMPASS - ASPIRA WEALTH – Q4 2025

In-depth stock market analysis from your wealth advisory team - Aspira Wealth from Victoria, BC.

Written by Alex Vozian, co-founder, and portfolio manager.

Turtle

2026 just started, and this turtle is already ahead of plan!

Photo by Alex Vozian. Victoria, BC. January 15, 2026.

Summary:

  • Thank you for your continued trust and partnership
  • Canadian and U.S. markets advanced (again!) in Q4 2025
  • Five Years of Resilience and Growth
  • Positive Signals from Leading Indicators
  • Investors Seem Undecided... As They Should
  • Aspira Team Update - Continuous Education

Thank You for Your Continued Trust and Partnership

We successfully navigated Q4 2025 - another quarter marked with both opportunity and complexity - while continuing to protect and grow your assets. We are looking forward to the opportunities that Q1 2026 presents.

This year, we captured most of the upside offered by equity markets. In some strategies, we exceeded the broad market performance – all without exposure to overly hyped and overpriced AI stocks.

Biggest contributors to your 2025 returns are miners of precious metals, copper, and uranium, as well as previously out-of-favour names like Medpace (healthcare).

Strategy-specific performance is available upon request, and we are happy to walk you through your individual results.

Canadian and U.S. Markets Advanced (Again!) in Q4 2025

Both equity markets are near all-time highs and up ~43% from April 2025 bottom.

The sources of strength in 2025 were mentioned in our earlier publications:

  • Favourable trend in interest rates in both countries
  • Relatively stable inflation level
  • Strong corporate earnings – the businesses had some time to adapt to changes in US trade policy
  • Decreasing regulatory burden in some of U.S. sectors (example – U.S. banking sector)
  • Strong pricing in precious metals, industrial metals, and uranium
  • High investments in data centres and energy infrastructure

Newer trends for the late 2025 and early 2026:

  • U.S. economic growth has accelerated significantly during 2025. GDP was up 3.8% in Q2 2025, up 4.3% in Q3 2025, and for Q4 2025 Atlanta Fed's is forecasting a 5.3% increase
  • U.S. productivity increased because of improving productivity in tech sector
  • U.S. job market showed signs of cooling despite strong economy
  • More uncertain monetary policy – significantly smaller odds of replacement of the current U.S. Fed Chairman after the developments from the past few days
  • Noise in the macroeconomic indicators in U.S. due to the longest-on-record U.S. government shutdown that lasted more than 1 month
  • Weaker housing starts in Canada and U.S.
  • Record IPO and merger & acquisition activity in the U.S.
  • Lower-income consumers showing signs of weakness, unlike the affluent consumers
  • U.S. geopolitical tensions increased significantly since the start of Q4 2025 across several regions, including Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland

Canadian (XIC.TO - red line) and U.S. (SPY – blue line) stock markets since Oct 1st 2025

Chart quarter

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Five Years of Resilience and Growth

Despite trade tensions, military conflicts, and a global pandemic, disciplined equity market investors have seen annualized returns exceeding 15% over the past five years - a testament to market resilience.

Canadian (XIC.TO - red line) and U.S. (SPY – blue line) stock markets – 5-year chart

5 years of resilience and growth

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Positive Signals from Leading Indicators

Copper Price – accelerated in Q4 2025 - crossing above $6/lb level for the first time - in line with our earlier forecasts of above $5. Some of our strategies are participating in copper price increase by owning mining companies. Copper price used to be a leading indicator for the “old” economy, but it is now increasingly correlated to the “new” economy - the increasing investments in data centres and energy infrastructure is requiring more copper – while there are limited new discoveries of copper resources around the world.

Semiconductors stocks - Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) doubled its price from April 2025 low, reaching a new all-time record level in Sep 2025. We largely avoided exposure to semiconductors in 2025 due to high risks and expensive valuations.

Short term interest rates in Canada and US are low and expected to contract further – again a positive signal for the equity markets.

Investors Seem Undecided... As They Should

Fear indicators like the Volatility index (VIX) and CNN’s Fear and Greed Index are currently in the neutral zone – investors seem undecided about their next move.

There is a merit in being alert - Canadian and U.S. markets have doubled in the last 5 years – much stronger than long term average growth.

Our Investment Outlook and Strategy

We expect the equity market returns in the next 5-10 years to be “more” normal – positive but lower than in recent years. Our near-term plan is unchanged since the last quarter:

Portfolio Positioning

  • All equity strategies to stay fully invested, reflecting our confidence in equity markets.
  • Continue to focus on dividend-paying stocks for income and stability.
  • Maintain diversified exposure to high-quality equities in both Canada and the U.S.
  • Maintain or modestly increase our small exposure outside North America.
  • Keep our current exposure to gold, silver, copper, and uranium above historical levels.
  • Maintain a neutral stance on USD vs. CAD currencies.

Risk Management

  • We see a rising probability of a short-term correction of about 15-20%. When it occurs, we will deploy a larger part of the available cash in all accounts.
  • We do not expect a correction larger than 25% - several factors could help cushion the downside, including potential interest rate cuts and softening trade policy.
  • We continue to avoid expensive and speculative stocks directly tied to the AI theme, focusing instead on companies that can thrive regardless of the AI cycle.

Monitoring the Landscape

  • Closely watch the upcoming corporate earnings season for signs of strength or weakness across sectors.
  • Continue to monitor trade, fiscal, monetary, technology, and geopolitical developments – without over-reacting.

Aspira Team Update - Continuous Education

Our team continued to build expertise through ongoing education and newly earned credentials.

  • Eileen Kelly upgraded her registration with the Canadian regulator to Associate Portfolio Manager (Canada)
  • Monica To acquired Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor (CRPC) designation (U.S.)
  • Ben Clark completed Wealth Management Essentials (WME®) course (Canada)
  • Margo Kruchynina completed final step for becoming a Registered Representative – the 90-day Training Program (Canada).

Thank you for your continued trust and partnership.

Alex Vozian, CFA Co-Founder and Portfolio Manager of Aspira Wealth

Thursday January 15, 2026.

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