INVESTMENT MARATHON #16 • May 2025
The building blocks of Aspira Wealth’s long-term investment strategy. Newsletter by Alex Vozian, CFA, Co-Founder and Associate Portfolio Manager
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Young bald eagle at Long Beach, Tofino, photographed by Alex Vozian, CFA.
SUMMARY
- Markets have recovered from the April 2025 lows, consistent with our earlier view.
- Canadian and U.S. markets update
- What makes Aspira’s investment process special? Maybe frugality!
- Personal update and ... asking a big favor!
MARKETS HAVE RECOVERED FROM THE APRIL 2025 LOWS, CONSISTENT WITH OUR EARLIER VIEW.
On April 7th, 2025, in our Quarterly Compass publication, we mentioned that “recent stock market decline is the opportunity that long term investors have been waiting for!”.
Next day, both Canadian and U.S. markets recorded their lowest level of the past 12 months and then a strong recovery started. As often is the case, the market recovery was ruthless, leaving behind investors waiting on the sidelines and waiting for “more clarity.”
We seized that opportunity by investing a part of recent cash deposits from new and existing clients.
We sincerely appreciate the patience shown by our clients during the very volatile month of April 2025, and the courage of a very few who sent us new money to seize the opportunity.
What surprised us the most is the lack of “total panic” calls from our clients in April 2025. We often receive a couple of calls like this in major market downturns, and those calls often accurately predict the bottom in the market. Hopefully, we didn’t receive such calls this time because we always encourage our clients to focus on the long term.
CANADIAN AND U.S. MARKETS UPDATE
April 2025 was the most volatile month since March 2020. As most of you know, the U.S. administration announced the details on tariffs in early April, followed by multiple updates from the U.S. and reactions from the rest of the world.
In April 2025, the Canadian market (XIC.TO) bottomed out at 14% below its record high, and managed to fully recover since then, currently being traded 2% above the previous record high from January 2025.
The U.S. market suffered even more in April 2025, contracting 21% from record high level, and almost fully recovering since then (currently trading 3% below record high).
Is there still room for the market to move higher considering that tariffs have caused at least some temporary damage to the economy?
Is there still room for the market to move higher considering that tariffs have caused at least some temporary damage to the economy?
Nobody knows, but we are optimistic about the long term because: (1) The peak tariff uncertainty is probably behind us. There are more positive than negative actions both from U.S. and rest of the world, including from U.S. largest trade partners. (2) Yes, macro-economic indicators and financial results of most of the companies might be negative for a couple of quarters, because of recent uncertainty. The stock market, however, is forward looking – i.e. based on assumption of where the economy will be 9-18 months from now. (3) The biggest economic threat of the past 5 years (U.S. Tariffs) is fading now, and we can hardly imagine a different threat, of the same magnitude, for the next couple of years.
Canadian Market (XIC.TO)
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
United States market (SPY)
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
What makes Aspira’s investment process special? MAYBE IT IS THE FRUGALITY OF THE PORTFOLIO MANAGERS!
Back in 2018, I realized that I am no longer able to fix by myself our only car. We used it for 8 years, including for our longest road trips, when moving from Minnesota to Quebec, and from Quebec to Victoria, BC. That Honda minivan was 9 years old when we bought it in great shape for just $5,400 in 2011.
So, what was the next car I bought in 2018? A nice 8-year-old Subaru with 225,000 km on it, for just $12,000. I expected to drive 100,000 km on it and spend less than $8,000 on repairs, leading to a total maximum cost of 20 cents per km excluding gas. As of today, I completed 99% of my 100K km goal with smaller than expected repair costs. I hope to end up at 15 cents per km, after the proceeds from selling my car later this year.
Also, cycling or running to work, every day, in all weather, is saving me annually $1,000 on bus rides, $500 on a gym membership, 50 hours on commuting to gym, plus long-term healthcare related savings.
These are just a couple of examples of many - please email me if you want to hear my most extremely frugal story!
The mindset of wise frugal spending is about making intentional, value-driven choices with money. It’s not about being cheap; it's about being smart, thoughtful, and aligned with long-term goals.
While frugality is optional for others, I think it is a must-have for investment managers, because it can help:
- Avoid unnecessary fees and expenses.
- Focus on value creation rather than flashy investments.
- Be cautious with risk, preserving capital.
TEAM UPDATES AND ... ASKING A BIG FAVOR
Few exciting events happened since our last Investment Marathon edition:
- Progress with succession planning. Alex was registered as Portfolio Manager with Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO). This change will streamline our processes and ensure continuity - should Chris ever decide to retire.
- First honeymoon vacation. After 23 years together, Alex and Dorina finally enjoyed their long-awaited honeymoon vacation in Tofino, without kids. Alex was a part time husband and part time wildlife photographer on that trip. You can see his best picture at the top of this publication.
- Chris was interviewed by The Globe and Mail, again! Chris’s thoughts were published in article "For young Canadians, the toughest job market in decades is threatening their financial futures”.
- Alex and his daughter are participating in a BC Cancer fundraiser.. In less than a month, Alex and his daughter Angelina are riding for the BC Cancer Foundation. It is a 120km bike ride starting in Langley. They have been training together for months now, and Alex is not surprised that Angelina has greatly surpassed him in speed.
As a natural researcher himself, Alex is passionate about accelerating medical research. BC Cancer supports world-leading scientists and clinicians across the province.
Thank you in advance for your generosity to this great cause.
PLEASE REACH OUT
Let's chat about what is on your mind and the puzzles you are trying to solve.
- Schedule a meeting with Chris, Eileen or Alex.
- Read our earlier publications here.
- Subscribe to our newsletters here.
DON’T KEEP IT A SECRET.
May we ask you a favor? If you like this newsletter, please share it with a friend who might enjoy it, too.
The information contained in this report was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be considered personal tax advice. This report is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. We are not tax advisors and we recommend that clients seek independent advice from a professional advisor on tax-related matters. This provides links to other Internet sites for the convenience of users. Raymond James Ltd./Raymond James (USA) Ltd is not responsible for the availability or content of these external sites, nor does Raymond James Ltd/Raymond James (USA) Ltd endorse, warrant or guarantee the products, services or information described or offered at these other Internet sites. Users cannot assume that the external sites will abide by the same Privacy Policy which Raymond James Ltd/Raymond James (USA) Ltd adheres to. Raymond James Ltd., Member—Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Raymond James (USA) Ltd. (RJLU) advisors may only conduct business with residents of the states and/or jurisdictions for which they are properly registered. Raymond James (USA) Ltd. is a member of FINRA/SIPC.
