THE QUARTERLY COMPASS - ASPIRA WEALTH – Q3 2025

In-depth stock market analysis from your wealth advisory team - Aspira Wealth from Victoria, BC.

Written by Alex Vozian, co-founder, and portfolio manager.

Owl_Uvic_Aspira_Wealth

Owls symbolize wisdom, protection, and mystery - qualities deeply connected to investing.

Picture by Alex Vozian, Finnerty Gardens, University of Victoria.

Summary:

  • Thank you for your continued trust and partnership
  • Canadian and U.S. markets advanced further in Q3 2025
  • Five years of resilience and growth
  • Positive signals from leading indicators
  • Investor sentiment - fear vs. market reality
  • Our investment outlook and strategy
  • New strategy from Aspira Wealth - The Legacy Compounder
  • We are also launching a new video series with Eileen

Thank you for your continued trust and partnership

We successfully navigated Q3 2025 - a quarter marked with both opportunity and complexity - while continuing to protect and grow your assets. We are looking forward to the opportunities that Q4 2025 presents.

This year, we captured most of the upside offered by equity markets, and in some strategies, we exceeded the broad market performance – all without exposure to overly hyped and overpriced AI stocks.

Biggest contributors to your 2025 returns are previously out-of-favour names like Medpace (healthcare) and United Rentals (industrial), as well as allocation to precious metals, copper and uranium.

Strategy-specific performance is available upon request, and we are happy to walk you through your individual results.

Canadian and U.S. markets advanced further in Q3 2025

Both equity markets are near all-time highs and up ~40% from April 2025 bottom. The recent sources of strength are:

  • Huge investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and strong earnings from AI leaders.
  • Rate cuts from U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada – reducing the borrowing costs and increasing the relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds.
  • Strong corporate earnings - with many companies beating expectations and raising guidance despite ongoing local and global uncertainty.

Canadian (XIC.TO - red line) and U.S. (SPY – blue line) stock markets since July 1st 2025

2025_Canadian_US_markets_Aspira_Wealth

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Five years of resilience and growth

Despite trade tensions, military conflicts, and a global pandemic, disciplined equity market investors have seen annualized returns exceeding 15% over the past five years - a testament to market resilience.

Canadian (XIC.TO - red line) and U.S. (SPY – blue line) stock markets – 5-year chart.

5_years_Canadian_US_markets_Aspira_Wealth

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Positive signals from leading indicators

Copper Price - leading indicator for the “old” economy – is trending up, after some volatility in Q3 2025 – the price increased to ~$6 in July 2025 but then declined to ~$5 / lb. We expect it to stay above $5 in the long run.

Semiconductors stocks – leading indicator for the “new” economy - Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) increased ~75% from April 2025 low, reaching new all-time high level in Sep 2025.

Interest rates in Canada and US are near one year low and expected to contract further – again a positive signal for the equity markets.

Investor sentiment - fear vs. market reality

While fear indicators like the VIX and CNN’s Fear and Greed Index are elevated, equity markets have yet to reflect this caution - a divergence worth monitoring.

The current fear list is long, but largely unchanged since last review:

  • Will central banks cut interest rates fast enough to help the weakening labor market?
  • Will central banks cut interest rates slow enough to not re-ignite the inflation?
  • Will investments in artificial intelligence (AI) have disruptive effects on employment?
  • Will benefits from AI technology outpace the AI investment costs?
  • Is the equity market overvalued? Are we in a middle of an AI bubble?
  • How much the US Trade tensions will affect the global economy?
  • When the US Government shutdown will end and how this delay is affecting the economy?

Our investment outlook and strategy

While recent market performance has been strong, we expect the returns in the next 5-10 years to be much lower than ones you witnessed in the last 5-10 years.

Here is our plan:

Portfolio Positioning

  • All equity strategies to stay fully invested, reflecting our confidence in equity markets.
  • Continue to focus on dividend-paying stocks for income and stability.
  • Maintain diversified exposure to high-quality equities in both Canada and the U.S.
  • Maintain or modestly increase our small exposure outside North America.
  • Keep our current exposure to gold, silver, and uranium above historical levels.
  • Maintain a neutral stance on USD vs. CAD currencies.

Risk Management

  • We see a rising probability of a short-term correction of about 15-20%. When it occurs, we will deploy a larger part of the available cash in established and newly funded accounts.
  • We do not expect a correction larger than 25%, as several factors could help cushion the downside, including potential interest rate cuts and softening trade policy.
  • We continue to avoid expensive and speculative stocks tied to the AI theme, focusing instead on companies that can thrive regardless of the AI cycle.

Monitoring the Landscape

  • Closely watch the upcoming corporate earnings season for signs of strength or weakness across sectors.
  • Continue to monitor trade, fiscal, monetary, technology, and geopolitical developments – without over-reacting.

New strategy from Aspira Wealth - The Legacy Compounder!

We are excited to launch a new investment strategy designed for our most tax-conscious clients - The Legacy Compounder.

Designed for non-registered (taxable) accounts with a minimum allocation of $500,000, this strategy focuses on long-term tax deferral. It achieves this by investing in a carefully selected mix of Aspira’s top-rated individual companies and a few strategic ETFs, with the intention to hold for years, or even decades - allowing compounding to work its magic.

The first two investors in this new strategy are Chris Raper and Alex Vozian, like they did with other Aspira strategies.

Ask about The Legacy Compounder during your next meeting with us.

We are also launching a new video series with Eileen!

We are pleased to announce the launch of a new video series With Eileen Kelly! From the fairway to financial planning, Eileen knows success starts with strategy.

In this video, Eileen Kelly, former pro golfer turned Associate Portfolio Manager, breaks down the importance of planning. She highlights real cross-border challenges clients face, and how working with licensed advisors at Aspira Wealth can help avoid costly mistakes.

Click the green “Subscribe to Insights” button below or email Eileen at Eileen.kelly@raymondjames.ca and add “Subscribe” into the subject line.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Alex Vozian, CFA Co-Founder and Portfolio Manager of Aspira Wealth

Oct 16, 2025.

The information contained in this report was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be considered personal tax advice. This report is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. We are not tax advisors, and we recommend that clients seek independent advice from a professional advisor on tax-related matters. This provides links to other Internet sites for the convenience of users. Raymond James Ltd./Raymond James (USA) Ltd is not responsible for the availability or content of these external sites, nor does Raymond James Ltd/Raymond James (USA) Ltd endorse, warrant or guarantee the products, services or information described or offered at these other Internet sites. Users cannot assume that the external sites will abide by the same Privacy Policy which Raymond James Ltd/Raymond James (USA) Ltd adheres to. Raymond James Ltd., Member—Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Raymond James (USA) Ltd. (RJLU) advisors may only conduct business with residents of the states and/or jurisdictions for which they are properly registered. Raymond James (USA) Ltd. is a member of FINRA/SIPC.